Economic Calendar

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Overnight Commentary

The week of 13 -19th August, I feel is going to be action packed. Turkey, as a country is under severe pressure from the US and frankly there doesn’t seem to be much to stem a capitulating Turkish Lira (at one stage down 20% on Friday) from heavy speculating in USDTRY from the Global Macro Hedge Fund community. The dollar, in recent weeks, has been the currency of choice and both G7 and emerging markets have felt the brunt of a sustained rally in the USD. The Turkish issue affected the German Dax (down 2%)) and also the Euro (-1%) on Friday with worries about a contagion effect in Europe and worries about European banks’ risk exposure to Turkey. The British pound also suffered, in part, due to a strong dollar but additionally because of Brexit woes and political instability in the Tory Party. The knives are out for PM Theresa May, who has a very tough job coordinating Brexit, but there is increasing risk of a “no-deal” and this really is leaving the UK in a state of utmost confusion. Despite a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of England,the GBP looks like it is going to be under pressure for some time yet.

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