Economic Calendar

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February 19: Markets have more or less erased the 10% correction of two weeks ago. ( Remember value disappearing in a few instants as the Dow plunged nearly 1600 points in an hour or so). Guess not! And that's the trouble. In this current melt-up, people seem to forget recent history and nothing gets in the way of naïve optimism. Well, I'm not so convinced, and Friday's close in New York did nothing to inspire me to go long equities; quite the contrary in fact. The tiny incremental gains in both the Dow and the S&P and the small loss in the Nasdaq, to me precedes a much larger fall. It was interesting watching the blasé commentary on US television as the Dow cascaded lower on Monday 5th Feb. It reminded me of 2001 as the Nasdaq spiraled lower, finally reaching its base of just above 1100 in October 2002. (A drop of 78% from the peak in 2000). My greatest fear is for leveraged retail investors, because they've been educated that making money is easy, right? It's not. I continue to follow  (long) yen versus EUR, GBP, AUD,, NZD and long gold and long VIX with interest.

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